Manganese Ore Fluctuates Downward, Market's Bullish Sentiment Persists [SMM Analysis]

Published: Feb 14, 2025 16:02

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【SMM Analysis: Manganese Ore Fluctuates Downward, Market Sentiment Remains Bullish】 As of this Friday, at northern ports: Australian lump ore was priced at 50-50.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); Australian fines at 42.5-43 yuan/mtu (down 2.29% WoW); South African semi-carbonate at 39-39.5 yuan/mtu (down 1.26% WoW); Gabonese ore at 48-50 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); and South African high-iron ore at 30-30.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW). At southern ports: Australian lump ore was priced at 45.5-46 yuan/mtu (down 2.14% WoW); Australian fines at 43.5-44 yuan/mtu (down 2.23% WoW); South African semi-carbonate at 36.5-37 yuan/mtu (down 2.65% WoW); Gabonese ore at 45-47 yuan/mtu (down 10.08% WoW); and South African high-iron ore at 9.5-30 yuan/mtu (flat WoW). Regarding February's imported manganese ore prices, overall market sentiment was relatively optimistic. Specifically, most industry participants were bullish on future manganese ore prices, mainly due to reduced shipments of Gabonese manganese ore, leading miners to hold back supplies, resulting in tight spot availability in the market. Additionally, with low port inventories of manganese ore, overall future supply is expected to decrease. Miners maintained firm offers and showed weak willingness to sell at low prices. Some industry participants were bearish on manganese ore prices, primarily because some alloy plants currently have sufficient manganese ore inventories, and most SiMn alloy plants are still operating at a loss, showing low acceptance of high-priced manganese ore. Therefore, manganese ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward.

SMM, February 14:
As of this Friday, at northern ports: Australian lump ore was priced at 50-50.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); Australian fines at 42.5-43 yuan/mtu (down 2.29% WoW); South African semi-carbonate at 39-39.5 yuan/mtu (down 1.26% WoW); Gabonese ore at 48-50 yuan/mtu (flat WoW); and South African high-iron ore at 30-30.5 yuan/mtu (flat WoW). At southern ports: Australian lump ore was priced at 45.5-46 yuan/mtu (down 2.14% WoW); Australian fines at 43.5-44 yuan/mtu (down 2.23% WoW); South African semi-carbonate at 36.5-37 yuan/mtu (down 2.65% WoW); Gabonese ore at 45-47 yuan/mtu (down 10.08% WoW); and South African high-iron ore at 9.5-30 yuan/mtu (flat WoW).

Regarding February's imported manganese ore prices, overall market sentiment was relatively optimistic. Specifically, most industry participants were bullish on manganese ore prices in the near term, mainly due to reduced shipments of Gabonese manganese ore, leading to strong hoarding sentiment among miners and tight spot availability in the market. Additionally, low port inventories of manganese ore further reduced overall supply, with miners standing firm on quotes and showing weak willingness to sell at low prices.

Some industry participants were bearish on manganese ore prices, primarily because some alloy plants currently have sufficient manganese ore inventories, and most SiMn alloy plants are still operating at a loss, making them less willing to accept high-priced manganese ore. As a result, manganese ore prices were expected to fluctuate downward.

A minority of industry participants believed manganese ore prices would remain stable, as miners were reluctant to sell at low prices and maintained a firm stance on quotes. However, downstream alloy plants, facing production pressure, tended to bargain down purchasing prices and showed weak willingness to purchase high-priced manganese ore. Sellers and buyers were expected to continue their tug-of-war.

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